It’s official, folks: mortgage rates have slid downhill faster than a kid on a Slip ’N Slide. The 10-year yield took a nosedive earlier today after the latest tariff news and the subsequent stock market tantrum. Picture global investors shrieking, “ABANDON SHIP!” and scrambling over each other to get into the safer harbor of bonds.
Naturally, all of that bond-buying pushes yields down—like gravity pushing a bowling ball down a slick lane—and now we’ve arrived at the lowest mortgage rates of 2025. We saw it coming. We said it could happen. And now that it has, we’re looking around like, “Where’s our trophy?”
You might be wondering: “Does this help commercial real estate too?” The answer: Absolutely. Lower yields often translate into more favorable terms for commercial mortgages—meaning developers, investors, and property owners can lock in cheaper financing. Think of it as scoring a coupon for 50% off a giant pretzel at the ball game. It’s a welcome surprise that leaves you with more money for other important things (like the cheese dip).
Just when we’re celebrating this nice drop in rates, the Friday jobs report comes out today and declares, “Hold my beer.” If the data rattles investors, yields might drop even further—paving the way for mortgage rates that are practically on roller skates, heading downhill. Of course, that’s not to say we want bad news for the job market. But, hey, we’re in real estate—sometimes, a little doom-and-gloom out there translates into cheerier monthly loan payments.
In this week’s Housing Market Tracker, the notoriously clairvoyant (and occasionally comedic) Logan Mohtashami noted that the 10-year yield was like a stubborn mule refusing to budge. We needed some global “bad news” to poke it, and—voilà—tariffs turned out to be the poke. Stock market doomsday chatter soared, bond yields collapsed, and your prospective mortgage rate now looks better than your aunt’s homemade apple pie.
To be honest, we were already doing our “Told you so” dance in the office. If you heard random whooping and hollering, that was probably us. We also just got paid on a big loan (ka-ching!), so the timing couldn’t be more perfect.
Keep your eye on today’s jobs report. If it spooks the markets, we might see even lower rates. If it reassures everyone, maybe we’ve found this ride’s bottom.
Commercial real estate watchers should gear up for a potential wave of refinances and acquisitions—especially if these rates stay low.
We’ll keep predicting the future (no crystal ball necessary). If we’re right again, someone owes us a free lunch.
It’s Friday, and the rate rollercoaster’s on a downhill run—time to throw our arms up and scream with delight. Enjoy the weekend, celebrate if you just locked in a killer rate, and let’s see what surprises next week’s news cycle brings.
Until then, pass the celebratory confetti (and that apple pie), because when rates drop like this, it’s party time in the mortgage and commercial loan world.